Confessionals from medicine ... and Scrabble

One of the differences between me and millcake16 is that he posts his cool plays; I post my "almost made a cool play"s. First the Anstandig endgame, now this from my game with andsol.

I lost by 182, but there were a couple key turning points. First, if I'd challenged off his pre-endgame phony, under optimal play the rest of the way I lose by about 60. Also, it hurt that I chickened out on the best play in the position below. (I instead exchanged II, mediocre even among the non-cool plays.) Check it:

Jason: Turn 6
   A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O      Andrew Solomon           xxxxxxx   259 
   ------------------------------  -> Jason                    DEIIIRS   151 
 1|=     '       =       '     =| --Tracking-----------------------------------
 2|  -       "       "       -  | AAABBEEJOORSTUUVWAEFLSNIOAGINNRSGLPIV?DM?ACM
 3|    -       '   '       -    | NTT  47
 4|'     -       '       -     '|
 5|        -           -        |
 6|  " C     "       "       "  |
 7|    O       '   '       '    |
 8|=   O '     T H O U   '     =|
 9|    E       ' E X   W   '    |
10|  " Y     "   H O E R     "  |
11|    I   -           I        |
12|F O N D L E   P     T -     '|
13|A   G     L Y R A T E D -    |
14|Z -   I R K   A   "       -  |
15|E     '     Q U E E N '     =|
   ------------------------------

Whereas after Chicago, Quackle told me: "How in heck did you get to 'Table 1' making these mistakes?", after looking at some of my Madness losses, it's put its arm around me and said: "It's not your fault." Well, not totally. But, I now *know* (as opposed to believing) a better player would've beaten Steve Anstandig, if only because my "Bud Light blown endgame" stat for the year is up to 3 (IIRC).

I made the second-best play, which unfortunately finishes 21 points behind the best play. Not terribly complicated, but I won't cesarsalad it and call it ridiculously simple either. Check it:

Jason: Turn 13
   A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O      Steve Anstandig          BIILTYZ   336 
   ------------------------------  -> Jason                    EEKLORR   308 
 1|=     '       =       '   M =| --Tracking-----------------------------------
 2|  -       "       "   O N E  | BIILTYZ  7
 3|    - Q I   M O P     B E G  |
 4|'     I N S U R E R   O W   '|
 5|    V   D I N     O S E      |
 6|  " A H I "       U N     F  |
 7|  S W A T   '   ' T A   G A D|
 8|= I   H E   C E L   P R O V E|
 9|  N '   r   ' F O X   E ' A  |
10|  U     s C U T   I R E   "  |
11|  A     -           I D      |
12|' T   -       '     O Y     '|
13|  E -       '   '   J   -    |
14|  -       G A T   " A     -  |
15|=     '     L A N D S '     =|
   ------------------------------

The summation stat:
Games below 400: 11
Games above 420: 1

( 24 bingos for, 23 bingos against ... and two annotations )

Yeah, that's the boring-est bingo list you'll ever see. Although I still liked my out bingo vs. Krieger.

Jason, who thanks all his friends for their support

5-9. Goodbye, 1800s. Goodbye, No. 1 in Michigan. Heck, I may have dipped all the way to fourth. I still don't know what to say. I'm kind of numb. I knew the correction would come, but it doesn't make it any easier to take. Two thoughts:

-The emperor has no clothes, and this kind of ends my surreal run with a thud. But yay for the unbelievable opportunities that sprung from it! I know my friends were happy for me every step of the way. And those who were jealous, reveled in pointing out the mistakes in my annotations and commented on my overratedness, waited for me to fall from grace ... they can go copulate with themselves.
-Maybe there was something to that Bihlmeyer similarity graph on cross-tables... (gulp)

Mad props to andsol for a 10-4 mark. Report to come tomorrow, maybe.

Jason

2-6. Didn't hit 400 all day. That sums it up. Bad tiles, yeah, but I know a better player would've won more games. Summation of the day was my round 8 loss to sr_orangepants: close game, we're each fishing late, I bingo with six in the bag, pull DGQTTW and watch him bingo out. We reverse-engineer the bag in the post-mortem and find that of his one-tile fish with seven in the bag, three of the seven tiles allow him to bingo out. One lets him bingo out with a word he knows. He picked the one tile that let him bingo out. But it was Keller, so I can't feel bad about that. (Plus, since I was going to have six consonants anyway, he might've been able to win without bingoing out.)

Ah well. Tomorrow's a new day. And I will kick @$$ at karaoke parodies tonight.

Jason

First off, still time to enter the MM roto! (Looking to beat last year's 40 ... up to 19 so far. Link goes bye-bye at 12:01 a.m. Saturday. Be kind to the roto director and get your entry in early.)

My MM Division 1 results:
'06: 6-8, -222
'07: 7-7, +65
'08: 8-6, +49

I'd definitely take the progression to 9-5, esp. since my record against the other four of the top five seeds is 9-27. 9-27! (6-11 vs. Bowman, 2-7 vs. Krieger, 1-4 vs. Berofsky, 0-5 vs. Hoekstra) That's even uglier than "baby doo-doo green" Protiles. Judging by the roto entries, it's clear stmonday and sneakyofverb are favorites 1A and 1B (as they should be). Me, I'm in that "needs a heckuva lot to go right" second tier.

Regardless of where I finish, should be a super-fun weekend.

Jason

I'll update this as often as I can until Friday night.

( Entries (21) )

Jason

The roto for the sneakyofverb Invitational Michigan Madness is now open for business.

Enter now! (Thanks, dallaswj, for putting it up!)

Jason

Cool to see the Can-Am teams set. I hope drbing, millcake16, skin_it_mahatma, nigelbo, meezerman and kenji_v_quackle (hey, I just noticed the entire team is LJers!) are doing weightlifting ... there's a good chance they'll be carrying about 150 lbs. of dead weight that weekend.

For those interested in attending Michigan Madness (or doing the roto), I just made an announcement to CGP/OSPD that (to avoid the yearly headache of dealing with last-minute entries) the tournament roster for roto purposes will be the tournament roster on cross-tables as of Monday. So, any LJers planning to come and not yet signed up (you know who you are), get cracking! Announcement of rules, format/division breaks, etc. will be forthcoming Tuesday.

OK, so my game vs. Big Fisz in Pittsburgh. He plays ELOPERS; I hold. I do the math, see that 12*4*8*2*11/2*6*4 is slightly larger than 3*2*6*9*6*12*4 (GYRATED); therefore, this would be in my prob. range (indeed, it would be in the batch of bingos I've recently studied), but I don't recall ever having seen it. So I challenge, it's good, and thus begins my doubting myself repeatedly during the weekend. But yet, Zyzzyva says the ADEGRTY rack is more probable than the EELOPRS rack. Eh? I'd assumed Zyz and Aerolith weren't doing the "counting blanks" thing, but are they? Dammit, I'm re-p*ssed over all this.

Jason

...just not one of my games. :)

About a year or so ago, at club, Chuck Armstrong and I discussed how to play a game in which you, say, have to lose by less than, say, 100. Do you sacrifice your winning chances and play defense from the opening tip? Or do you play it straight? Or do you just not open any triple lines and block any available triple-triple when opponent opens? Play off a bunch of tiles at a time to shorten the game? We never decided, just threw ideas out and said it was an interesting discussion to have.

As I mentioned, Jeff Fiszbein was 10-2, +851 through 12 in Pittsburgh. Brian Bowman was 9-3, +563. So, Jeff had to lose by 143 or less to win the tournament. He never counted on a bingo-bango-bongo-bungo-Bowman from opponent, though. Jeff was nice enough to e-mail a scanned copy of his scoresheet from round 13 when I requested it this morning (he also said the game "was like playing against Quackle; nothing I could do but sit back and marvel"), so here's the Pittsburgh final, including Jeff's racks. Would like to hear comments regarding how to play in this situation.

Play the game

Jason

First off, the stmonday/Fiszbein game:

Going into the last round, Big Fisz had 10 wins, Bowman 9. Jeff was about 280 spread points up, so he just had to keep it within like 140. Brian went first ... each player made a middling play, each bingoed (Jeff's was ARMOIRE/A(QUIVER)). Brian bangoed. Brian bongoed (trip-trip with OUTLINER). Brian "Irving"-ed (OUTPLODS, which was challenged). Brian then "Bowman"-ed (REGIONAL) and followed that with JEST for 57. Through seven turns, Brian had something like 512. Final score: something like 620-338.

So, the discussion of what to call the fourth. Bingo-bango-bongo-Irving-Bowman doesn't have the same ring. (Not to mention that nobody I've talked to understands the significance of Irving ... Gilligan's Island wasn't really that popular. I heard "bungo" can be used for the fourth; I like "bingo-bango-bongo-bungo-Bowman." Perhaps bingo-bango-bongo-bungo-Brian Bowman so that it's clear it has nothing to do with that leech Joseph Bowman, the only person alive with a rating-to-word knowledge ratio worse than sr_orangepants. (j/k, Jason! You'll get back to where you belong soon! Huggles!)

Jeff keeps his scoresheets and writes his racks down, but I doubt he'd be receptive to having it annotated. :) In all seriousness, Jeff really showed his class this weekend. It must have been gut-wrenching to lose what would have been his first multi-day Div. 1 win like that, but no pouting, no whining. Sometimes you lose a game and say "I wasn't going to win no matter what." Very seldom do you say "I was going to lose by 140 no matter what." But that's what happened and Jeff handled it like a champ.

Oh yeah, I played the tourney too. Not well, but I played. :) To the games:

( 25 bingos for, 17 against )

7-6, +106. Down 32 rating points to 1867. I may Duck the losses quick, but it's time for some review before the Madness. After ELOPERS and HAKE, I found myself in a confidence crisis word knowledge-wise for the rest of the tourney, and it cost me rounds 8 and 11.

Still super-fun. In a way, more fun than my Fenton win and Chicago performance, since I didn't face any pressure. I always try to thank the director post-tourney ... this was the first time the director sought me out to thank me for coming, said she looked at my mediocre performance and thought "he's probably not a happy camper" (nothing could be further from the truth ... could she not hear my frequent laughter annoying the room?), then gave me some b.s. about how my presence gave the tourney credibility, encouraged some of the 1400s-1500s to come and play D-1 ... buttering me up so I'll want to play next year, no doubt. Still, it was nice to hear. Whoever said flattery gets you nowhere never met me. :)

Jason

stmonday, J. Fiszbein, Carol Rav: 6-1
pbzeigler, Hoekstra, ipecac_icecap: 5-2

I'm in the sizable pack at 4-3, with a mediocre spread. Meh. One win was a total donation, two were baggings, not sure I deserved the fourth (vs. baxwest). Don't feel terrible about any of the three losses. In one I challenged opp's opening play of ELOPERS, fell behind by almost 200, then got away with ORiFICED* and drew well thereafter to lose by "only" 30-some, making me wonder what would've happened if I hadn't blanked on ELOPERS.

jigsawn 2-5, as is sr_orangepants, in need of huggles.

Jason

Before getting to the Monday games, some shoutouts:

( Shoutouts )

Blah, blah, blah. To the games, which were all kind of duds given the circumstances.

Game 17 vs. Brian Cappelletto (L, 382-514)
I liked Brian better when he didn't bingo. Kept up with him for a while. Double-blank bingo the dagger.
Play the game

Game 18 vs. gijoel666 (L, 298-393)
Always a step behind. Proud of "endgame" pass, though. Can person who sent UNAU into Scrabble News hook me up? :)
Play the game

Game 19 vs. scrabblek8 (W, 542-375)
Table one not kind to Kate. I bag her in "posers getting b****slapped by Brian and Joel" bowl. Feel badly. (Apologies to Kate for making her relive it.)
Play the game

Game 20 vs. scrabblek8 (L, 438-473)
Neither of us slept well night before. It showed here. Unhappy to maybe cost myself game, but glad Kate won. (One last thanks to Kate for providing racks/commentary for all three of our games.)
Play the game

Two last goofy Arden stats:

With two blanks: 4-5
With one blank: 7-1
With no blanks: 1-2

Arden '07, Div. B: 11-5 weekend, top group, 2-2 Monday, fourth place
Arden '08, Div. A: 5-11 weekend, bottom group, 3-1 Monday
Arden '09, Div. A: 11-5 weekend, top group, 1-3 Monday, fourth place

On to Pittsburgh!

Jason, annoyed his recent opponent didn't give him a letter to play through when he had ?ADKNQR

Thanks for everybody's input on the Helfgott situation, even it did make me feel even worse about losing that game. The stupid thing is that after hearing the "when in doubt, call the director" speech in NYC, I made a point of emphasizing it in my pre-tourney announcements. Then I didn't follow my own advice.

I just felt like the benefit (what I viewed as a slim chance of getting the free challenge (and needing it)) didn't outweigh the cost (potentially p*ssing off first-time opponent having a bad tourney who wasn't doing anything malicious, etc.)

Finally, I decided to answer my question of "Exactly how many more words is Collins than the OWL?"

Number of letters	OWL words	Collins words	% increase
2	101	124	22.77%
3	1015	1292	27.29%
4	4030	5454	35.33%
5	8938	12478	39.61%
6	15788	22157	40.34%
7	24029	32909	36.96%
8	29766	40161	34.92%

I'm not sure what, if anything, I showed.

Jason

So, after 12 rounds at Arden, I surprisingly led. Three of us at 9-3, I had the highest spread in the division, even though it was <600. However, Joel won his last eight games while I came back to earth.

Game 13 vs. Lisa Odom (W, 421-387)
Get one power tile: the Q. Let phony go, play phony four. Win anyway, yay synergy and flawless play late.
Play the game

Game 14 vs. Alan Helfgott (L, 399-443)
Still a little bitter over this one. Maybe I should've called the director after his trip-trip. What say you?
Play the game

Game 15 vs. millcake16 (L, 421-481)
0-3 against Joey, giving up 503 points per. Batted .500 in challenging phonies off. Not good enough. (Thanks to Joey for the racks.)
Play the game

Game 16 vs. ipecac_icecap (W, 451-437)
Fun, interesting, well-played beginning and middle for both of us. Lousy endgames. Boo, rack-stalkers.
Play the game

Jason

A luckbox 6-2 becomes a luckbox 9-3 ... at least I start playing better after this set.

Game 9 vs. sr_orangepants (W, 488-406)
Another brainlessly played bagging. Opponent becomes "Senor orange-you-upset-pants". Sorry, dude; huggles. (Thanks to Jason for the racks.)
Play the game

Game 10 vs. Max Panitch (W, 460-397)
Good to get first win against Can-Am opponent (third try). Good to play OK in "dress rehearsal." Good win.
Play the game

Game 11 vs. Marty Gabriel (W, 474-379)
208 through four turns. Blank bingo to follow. Make sure to keep bag above head, avert eyes, etc. ;)
Play the game

Game 12 vs. gijoel666 (L, 430-455)
Fun, interesting shootout worthy of the circumstances. Joel doesn't know how he won. I don't know how I lost.
Play the game

Jason

Game 5 vs. anendlessnight (L, 385-442)
Plethora of power tiles early, big lead. Vowelitis late; nice comeback by Rob. Blather endlessly about semi-interesting pre-endgame. (Thanks to Rob for the racks/his take.)
Play the game

Game 6 vs. Brian Cappelletto (L, 305-346)
Not "proud" to hold Brian bingoless. Just saying it doesn't happen often. Depressing to Quackle ... probably should've won.
Play the game

Game 7 vs. rafij52 (W, 405-314)
Early double-blank bingo. 52-point Z play two turns later. Dreck for Rafi, who had an impressive showing. (Thanks to Rafi for the racks/comments.)
Play the game

Game 8 vs. dugy1001 (W, 486-384)
Missed bingos abound. But yay for cool extensions! Nearly blew bagging before brain turned on at end. (Thanks to Sam for the racks.)
Play the game

Jason

Before getting to the rest of the annotations: phony chart, missed bingos ... and why Arden will be my last annotations for a while.

( Phony chart (4 green, 3 red) )

So pissed at my bingo misses at Arden ... 15 in the first 10 games. "Only" four in the last 10 to be semi-respectable, but still. That's 111 in 133 tourney games this year (.8346/game) compared with 181 misses in 217 tourney games last year (.8341/game). Yay improvement.

( 19 misses with varying degrees of embarrassed-ness )

( Why the Quackle addict is taking a break )

Jason

Will post more tonight, but surely I can do better than this! Help!

Jason

With recaps now in 20 words/three sentences or less, a la my Saturday lunch companions! :)

Game 1 vs. Ken Kasney (W, 454-328)
First live game in over a month. Messed up track/count thrice. Closer than score indicates.
Play the game

Game 2 vs. scrabblek8 (W, 385-357)
Fun game. Aren't they all against Kate, though? Lucky at the end, which helped. (Thanks to Kate for adding her racks/commentary.)
Play the game

Game 3 vs. ipecac_icecap (W, 394-364)
Get lucky to come back. George makes mistake under time pressure. Stu and Marty, just be quiet.
Play the game

Game 4 vs. Paul Epstein (W, 457-427)
Bagged him. Played brainlessly, hurt spread. Not the last time for any of these, BTW.
Play the game

Ugh, five bingo misses through four. Ugh, took hour of overtime today, hour of overtime tomorrow, full day of overtime Saturday. Getting these done in two weeks looks doubtful. Ugh.

Jason